Temporary Comment

[This was posted as a comment on Lucia’s Blackboard blog but disappeared down a borehole. It is repeated here but may disappear if the original comment shows up]

No, I don’t have any references because I did not look for any. However, I can give you some visual examples of this unequal variability property.

For a while now, I have been studying daily station series and it seems quite clear that winter temperatures are more variable than summer ones and that this effect is very strongly accentuated as one moves toward the poles. Recently BEST published their newly minted temperature series and at their web page, they produced a gridded equal-area cell construction of 5498 monthly land temperature series.

I took a time-truncated subset of all of these series starting in February, 1956 (the date was chosen because it was the earliest date from which all of the cells had values for each month) and continuing to the most recent values. For each series, the standard deviation of the temperature was calculated separately for each month.

The first pair of plots gives a plot of the SD by latitude for the months of February and August. The red lines are references for the tropics.

The second pair is a plot versus longitude with point from the northern and southern hemisphere indicated by color.

Admittedly, I have not detrended the anomalies first, but the climate variation for a cell should not be large enough to create such large differences in the SDs between months.

Unequal variability would create a fairly substantial stumbling block for finding changepoints in series.


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6 responses to “Temporary Comment

  1. None

    Can I get the password ? šŸ™‚

  2. RomanM

    Not yet. šŸ˜‰

  3. None

    I assume that was the post at climateaudit then ?

  4. RomanM

    Yes. I sometimes use this site to fine tune a post and determine what it looks like. If I mark it as “Private”, no one other than myself can see it.

    In this case, I had asked someone else to look at it so I had to post it publicly with password protection.

  5. Climate ResearcherĀ 

    Yes, Lucia will delete this comment of mine too I suspect …

    A review of the book “CLIMATE CHANGE THE FACTS 2014” by about 24 authors.

    The best and most relevant chapter in this new book is that by William Soon, namely Chapter 4 “Sun Shunned” in which he discusses things such as the eccentricity of the Sun’s orbit that I have also pointed out as the principal regulator of glacial periods.

    The rest of the chapters on the “science” do not discuss the valid physics which is really what does determine Earth’s surface temperatures. Instead the “lukes” all reiterate the false claim that carbon dioxide causes significant warming of the surface by radiative forcing. Nowhere is the assumed process of forcing actually discussed. We just get the usual false paradigm that carbon dioxide traps outward radiation and thus supposedly makes the surface warmer.

    Carbon dioxide does not trap thermal energy. It disposes of what it absorbs either by subsequent radiation or by sensible heat transfer (via molecular collisions) to other air molecules which outnumber it by 2,500 to 1. It also helps nitrogen and oxygen cool through such collisions, and may subsequently radiate the energy thus acquire out of the atmosphere.

    All radiation between regions at different temperatures can only transfer thermal energy from the warmer region (or surface) to a cooler region. This means all heat transfer in the troposphere is generally upwards to cooler regions, with a proportion always getting through to space. There is no thermal energy transferred to a warmer surface. The energy transfer is the other way. The Sun’s radiation is not helped by radiation from the atmosphere which is only sending back some of its own energy now with much lower energy photons. Radiating gases reduce the insulating effect by helping energy to escape faster, and that is why moist air in double glazed windows also reduces the insulating effect, just as does water vapor in the troposphere.

    Nowhere in the book do we see the surface temperature explained correctly using Stefan Boltzmann calculations. No one ever does this, because it is an absolute stumbling block for climatologists. The mean solar flux entering the surface is only about 163W/m^2 after 52% of the solar radiation has been either absorbed or reflected by the surface, clouds or atmosphere. But such a low level of radiation would only produce a very cold -41Ā°C. That’s even colder than what the IPCC claims would be the case, namely -18Ā°C without greenhouse gases. They deduce that by assuming that the whole troposphere would be isothermal due to convective heat transfer, including sensible heat transfers by molecular collision.

    Hence all the “luke” authors fall for the trap of not actually explaining the existing surface temperature, let alone what carbon dioxide might or might not do. How could you work out the latter if you don’t know your starting point? The truth is that you cannot calculate the surface temperature of any planet that has a significant atmosphere by using radiation calculations. Hence all the considerations pertaining to radiation and absorption by carbon dioxide are totally within a wrong paradigm.

    That assumption by the IPCC (and thus by the “lukes” who have written this book) that the troposphere would be isothermal was rubbished in the 19th century by some physicists who understood the process described in statements of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. It is still being rubbished to this day, and even more so, now that physicists realise that the Second Law is all about entropy increasing to the point where there are no unbalanced energy potentials. In a gravitational field this state of thermodynamic equilibrium is attained when all the energy potentials involving gravitational potential energy, kinetic energy and radiative energy balance out. That is when the environmental temperature gradient is attained, and the very fact that it exists enables us to explain all planetary surface temperatures (and the required energy flows) without the slightest reference to back radiation, let alone trace gases like carbon dioxide. Only water vapor has a significant effect in lowering that gradient because of its radiating properties. It thus cools the surface, and that puts a big spanner in the works for the IPCC et al.

  6. Hugh

    “This means all heat transfer in the troposphere is generally upwards to cooler regions, with a proportion always getting through to space. ”

    I’m always absolutely stunned by this. I don’t understand what new is in this. CO2 slows down cooling by reradiating downwards part of infrared that otherwise would disappear to space more directly. I don’t say how much this effect prevents the Earth cooling, this is calculated by someone more capable than me.

    If you want to prove otherwise, you need something else than telling what the Second Law of Thermodynamics is about.

    So interesting, but could you provide with an error in the literature that you want to fix? Of course you need to first find the primary literature, which you want to refute.

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